Forex Trading

Inflation Hawk: Dovish and Hawkish Monetary Policy Explained

Hawks are seen as willing to allow interest rates to rise in order to keep inflation under control, even if it means sacrificing economic growth, consumer spending, and employment. Central bankers are described as “hawkish” when they are in support of the raising of interest rates to fight inflation, even to the detriment of economic growth and employment. While the head of a central bank isn’t the only one making monetary policy decisions for a country (or region), what he or she has to say is only not ignored, but revered like the gospel. Yes, it’s important to know what’s coming down the road regarding potential monetary policy changes. And lucky for you, central banks are getting better at communicating with the market.

  1. These aren’t the only instances in economics in which animals are used as descriptors.
  2. Central bank policy makers determine whether to increase or decrease interest rates, which have significant impact on the forex market.
  3. George favors raising interest rates and fears the potential price bubbles that accompany inflation.
  4. It’s that individual’s role to be the voice of that central bank, conveying to the market which direction monetary policy is headed.
  5. The opposite are a dove and dovish policies, seen as more meek or conservative.

And much like when Jeff Bezos or Warren Buffett steps to the microphone, everyone listens. We just learned that currency prices are affected a great deal by changes in a country’s interest rates. We introduce people to the world of trading currencies, both fiat and crypto, through our non-drowsy educational content and tools. We’re also a community of traders that support each other on our daily trading journey. This is often at the expense of economic growth, as higher interest rates discourage borrowing and encourage savings. A hawk is someone who favors a tighter monetary policy, which means higher interest rates, with the aim of keeping inflation in check.

How to trade a Hawkish or Dovish Central Bank

Hawks and doves are terms used by analysts and traders to categorize members of central bank committees by their probable voting direction ahead of monetary policy meetings. At DailyFX we have a Central Bank Weekly Webinar where we analyze central bank decisions and keep you up to date with central bank activity. Now that you understand the two terms, it’s time to learn where to get this information. It would be nice if you could go to a website that told you the current bias of every central bank in the world. But if you want to keep things really simple, a hawkish stance can be a clue that interest rates may increase and thus, the value of the currency might increase too. So they try to keep the economy growing at more reasonable pace by being hawkish, or watching over inflation.

But whenever you read something about monetary policy, it’s usually in geek-speak and it takes a few minutes to digest the real meaning and real-life application of the terms. The opposite are a dove and dovish policies, seen as more meek or conservative. biden should finish trumps trilateral trade diplomacy Hawkish policies tend to favor savers and lenders (who can enjoy higher interest rates). Before starting this site, I worked at the trading desk of a hedge fund, at one of the largest banks in the world, and at an IBM Premier Business Partner.

Understanding Inflation Hawks

The term hawkish is used to describe contractionary monetary policy. Central bankers can be said to be hawkish if they talk about tightening monetary policy by increasing interest rates or reducing the central bank’s balance sheet. A monetary policy stance is said to be hawkish if it forecasts future interest rate increases.

Advantages and Disadvantages of Hawkish Policies

Jerome Powell, named to the post in 2018, was rated as neutral (neither hawkish nor dovish) by the Bloomberg Intelligence Fed Spectrometer. A hawk generally favors relatively higher interest rates if they are needed to keep inflation in check. In other words, hawks are less concerned with economic growth and more focused on the potential of recessionary pressure brought to bear by high inflation rates. An inflation hawk, also known in economic jargon as a hawk, is a policymaker or advisor who is predominantly concerned with the potential impact of interest rates as they relate to monetary policy. Yet there’s always a possibility that central bankers will change their outlook in greater or lesser magnitude than expected.

Hawks are those that want to see higher interest rates, while doves are those who would prefer interest rates to remain low. This has a “trickle down” effect and determines the rates of everything from savings account yields, to credit card interest rates, to mortgage rates. For example, in the United States, the central bank is the Federal Reserve. It can also depend on the amount of the increase, the post-increase rate relative to other countries and if the increase was expected or not. This could happen for a variety of reasons, some of which you can read about in detail here.

The Bank of England could be described as being hawkish if they made an official statement leaning towards the increasing of interest rates to reduce high inflation. Currency analysts and traders alike take the news and try to dissect the overall tone and language of the announcement, taking special care to do this when interest rate changes or economic growth information are involved. It’s that individual’s role to be the voice of that central bank, conveying to the market which direction monetary policy is headed.

At the same time, domestic exports become relatively more expensive for overseas consumers, further hurting domestic manufacturing. The opposite of a hawk is known as a dove, or an economic policy advisor who prefers monetary policies that involve low interest rates. Doves typically believe that lower rates will stimulate the economy, leading to an increase in employment. In some cases, banks end up lending money more freely when interest rates are higher. High rates dissipate risk, making banks potentially more likely to approve borrowers with less-than-perfect credit histories.

Both with the meanings and more importantly, how each monetary policy can affect the value of a country’s currency. Alan Greenspan, who served as chair of the Fed from 1987 to 2006, was considered to be fairly hawkish in 1987, but he changed over time to a relatively dovish stance. Ben Bernanke, who served in the post from 2006 to 2014, also alternated between hawkish and dovish tendencies.

A slight shift in tone from a central banker could have drastic consequences for a currency. Forward guidance from central banks include positive statements about the economy, economic growth, and inflation outlook. Hawkish and dovish policies affect currency rates through a mechanism central bankers like to call “forward guidance”. This is policy makers trying to be as transparent as possible in their communications to the market about where monetary policy may be heading. Central bank policy makers determine whether to increase or decrease interest rates, which have significant impact on the forex market. Policy makers increase interest rates to prevent an economy from overheating (to prevent inflation from going too high) and they decrease interest rates to stimulate an economy (to prevent deflation and stimulate GDP growth).

We now know that interest rates are ultimately affected by a central bank’s view on the economy and price stability, which influence monetary policy. In forex, the terms  “hawkish” and “dovish” refer to the attitude of central bank officials toward managing the balance between inflation and growth. The table below provides a more in depth comparison on dovish vs hawkish monetary policies, highlighting the differences between the two and how they impact currencies.

Before starting Trading Heroes in 2007, I used to work at the trading desk of a hedge fund, for one of the largest banks in the world and at an IBM Premier Business Partner. Although a lower interest rate will usually weaken a currency, what also matters is the interest rate, relative to the interest rate of other countries. Central banks don’t want the economy to grow too quickly, because it is not sustainable. They are known as “doves” and use words like “soften” and “cooling down” will be used. They also tend to have a more non-aggressive stance or viewpoint regarding a specific economic event or action. They are known as “hawks” and use words like “tighten” and “heating up” will be used.

Central bankers can also be said to be hawkish when they are positive about the economic growth outlook and expect inflation to increase. When central bankers are talking about reducing interest rates or increasing quantitative easing to stimulate the economy they are said to be dovish. Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, stated that “we’re a long way away from neutral at this point” which the market perceived as hawkish (2 Oct 2018). This implied that the Federal Reserve still had to hike rates many more times to get to the neutral rate. Then on the 28th of November, the FOMC released their statement of monetary policy in which Jerome Powell said he saw rates at “just below neutral”.

With higher interest rates, consumers will borrow less and spend less on credit. Higher mortgage rates will also put a damper on the housing market and can cause housing prices to fall in turn. Higher rates on car loans can have a similar effect on the automobile market. Although the term “hawk” is often levied as an insult, high interest rates can carry economic advantages. While they make it less likely for people to borrow funds, they make it more likely that they will save money.

Trả lời

Email của bạn sẽ không được hiển thị công khai.